Episode #15 Bottom Forecast — Extended Analysis

200MA Breadth Downtrend started 2026-03-12 — n=12 actual corrections (2007–2025), z-score weighted — Data as of 2026-03-26

Elapsed

14d

11 trading days since start

200MA Breadth

61.5%

−1.3pt from start

8MA Breadth

49.5%

−7.9pt — declining steadily

SPY (S&P 500 proxy)

645.09

−2.9% from start / −5.6% from peak (683.26)

8MA Status

Pre-capitulation

Warning < 40% / Typical bottom 20–30%

SHORT

~27%

Bottom: ~28 cal. days from start
Timing: Early April 2026
DD (from peak 683): −7.4%
SPY target: ~632

prev n=7: 22% → +5pt

Analogs: #6 2012-11, #13 2023-09, #11 2020-06

MEDIUM

~9%

Bottom: ~80 cal. days from start
Timing: Late May 2026
DD (from peak 683): −18.3%
SPY target: ~558

prev n=7: 23% → −14pt

Analogs: #5 2012-06, #10 2020-02 (COVID)

LONG

~64%

Bottom: ~263 cal. days from start
Timing: Late November 2026
DD (from peak 683): −20.8%
SPY target: ~541

prev n=7: 55% → +9pt

Analogs: #1 2007, #3 2010, #14 2024, #4 2011, #12 2021, #9 2018, #2 2008

#	Period	Cat	Start→Bot	Bot→Rec	Total	SPY DD	Bot 200MA
#1	2007-07 ~ 2008-05	LONG	274d	22d	296d	-14.5%	36.3%
#2	2008-06 ~ 2009-04	LONG	286d	21d	307d	-50.7%	12.7%
#3	2010-05 ~ 2010-11	LONG	133d	48d	181d	-12.1%	57.1%
#4	2011-06 ~ 2012-01	LONG	197d	19d	216d	-17.7%	46.2%
#5	2012-06 ~ 2012-09	MEDIUM	63d	35d	98d	-3.9%	61.2%
#6	2012-11 ~ 2013-01	SHORT	20d	35d	55d	-6.9%	62.5%
#9	2018-02 ~ 2019-02	LONG	358d	14d	372d	-15.2%	51.8%
#10	2020-02 ~ 2020-06	MEDIUM	98d	3d	101d	-32.8%	50.2%
#11	2020-06 ~ 2020-07	SHORT	17d	9d	26d	-9.1%	49.6%
#12	2021-09 ~ 2022-11	LONG	402d	14d	416d	-17.7%	38.4%
#13	2023-09 ~ 2023-11	SHORT	48d	17d	65d	-6.3%	53.8%
#14	2024-12 ~ 2025-07	LONG	190d	26d	216d	-17.6%	56.5%
#15	2026-03-12 ~	ONGOING	14d+	—	—	−5.6%	61.5%

* Episodes #7 (2014-02) and #8 (2016-11) excluded as breadth divergences (price rose despite breadth downtrend)

Extended sample: 12 actual corrections from 2007–2025 (up from 7 in the original 2016–2026 analysis). Two breadth-divergence episodes (price rose despite breadth downtrend) excluded.
Z-score normalization: Features (200MA Δ, 8MA Δ, price Δ, starting breadth levels) are standardized before computing Euclidean distance. This prevents any single feature from dominating similarity.
Closest analog shifted: #1 2007-07 (pre-GFC, 18.6% weight) replaced #5 2021-09 (6.6% weight) as the top match. The gradual early-stage decline is most similar to the 2007 pattern.
Bimodal pattern confirmed: With n=12, MEDIUM episodes dropped from 29% to 17%. Corrections tend to be either SHORT (< 90d) or LONG (> 180d) — rarely in between.
8MA thresholds: Warning zone (< 40%) = elevated stress; Typical bottom zone (20–30%) = historical trough readings. Current 49.5% remains above both.
Time units: All scenario timelines use calendar days. Trajectory charts use trading days (x-axis labeled).
Caveats: n=12 is an improvement but still statistically limited. Probabilities are directional guideposts, not precise forecasts. Past patterns do not guarantee future outcomes.