Scenario Analyzer

Analyze news headlines to build 18-month investment scenarios. Uses the scenario-analyst agent for primary analysis and the strategy-reviewer agent for a second opinion. Generates comprehensive reports including primary/secondary/tertiary sector impacts, stock picks, and critical review. Output is in Japanese.

No API

Download Skill Package (.skill) View Source on GitHub

Table of Contents

1. Overview

This skill takes a news headline as input and builds medium-to-long-term (18-month) investment scenarios. It sequentially invokes two specialized agents (scenario-analyst and strategy-reviewer) to produce a comprehensive report that integrates multi-angle analysis with critical review.

2. When to Use

  • Analyze the medium-to-long-term investment impact of a news headline
  • Build multiple 18-month forward-looking scenarios (Base / Bull / Bear)
  • Organize sector and stock impacts across primary, secondary, and tertiary levels
  • Obtain a comprehensive analysis that includes a second opinion
  • Generate a Japanese-language scenario report

Usage examples:

/scenario-analyzer "Fed raises interest rates by 50bp, signals more hikes ahead"
/scenario-analyzer "China announces new tariffs on US semiconductors"
/scenario-analyzer "OPEC+ agrees to cut oil production by 2 million barrels per day"

3. Prerequisites

  • API Key: None required
  • Python 3.9+ recommended
  • Claude Code Required: This skill uses two specialized agents (scenario-analyst and strategy-reviewer) defined in the agents/ directory. These agents are only available in the Claude Code environment. The .skill package does not include agents. In the Claude web app, the skill runs all analysis in a single pass without dedicated agents.

4. Quick Start 

Read references/headline_event_patterns.md
Read references/sector_sensitivity_matrix.md
Read references/scenario_playbooks.md

5. Workflow

Phase 1: Preparation

Step 1.1: Headline Parsing

Parse the headline provided by the user.

  1. Headline verification – confirm a headline was passed as an argument; if not, prompt the user for input.
  2. Keyword extraction – extract key entities (companies, countries, institutions), numerical data (rates, prices, quantities), and actions (raise, cut, announce, agree, etc.).

Step 1.2: Event-Type Classification

Classify the headline into one of the following categories:

Category Examples
Monetary Policy FOMC, ECB, BOJ, rate hike/cut, QE/QT
Geopolitics War, sanctions, tariffs, trade friction
Regulation / Policy Environmental regulation, financial regulation, antitrust
Technology AI, EV, renewables, semiconductors
Commodities Oil, gold, copper, agriculture
Corporate / M&A Acquisitions, bankruptcies, earnings, industry consolidation

Step 1.3: Load References

Based on the event type, load the relevant reference documents:

Read references/headline_event_patterns.md
Read references/sector_sensitivity_matrix.md
Read references/scenario_playbooks.md

Reference contents:

  • headline_event_patterns.md: Historical event patterns and market reactions
  • sector_sensitivity_matrix.md: Event-to-sector impact matrix
  • scenario_playbooks.md: Scenario-building templates and best practices

Phase 2: Agent Invocation

Step 2.1: Invoke scenario-analyst

Use the Agent tool to invoke the primary analysis agent. The agent:

  1. Collects related news from the past 2 weeks via WebSearch
  2. Builds 3 scenarios (Base / Bull / Bear) with probabilities summing to 100%
  3. Analyzes primary / secondary / tertiary impacts by sector
  4. Selects 3-5 positively and negatively affected stocks (US-listed only)
  5. Outputs everything in Japanese

Expected output: related news list, 3 scenario details, sector impact analysis, stock pick list.

Step 2.2: Invoke strategy-reviewer

Pass the scenario-analyst output to the review agent. Review criteria:

  1. Missed sectors or stocks
  2. Scenario probability allocation reasonableness
  3. Logical consistency of impact analysis
  4. Optimistic / pessimistic bias detection
  5. Alternative scenario proposals
  6. Timeline realism

Expected output: gap identification, probability feedback, bias flags, alternative scenarios, final recommendations.

Phase 3: Integration & Report Generation

Step 3.1: Consolidate Results

Integrate both agents’ outputs into a final investment thesis:

  1. Fill gaps identified by the reviewer
  2. Adjust probability allocations if warranted
  3. Incorporate bias considerations into the final judgment
  4. Formulate a concrete action plan

Step 3.2: Generate Report

Save the final report to reports/scenario_analysis_<topic>_YYYYMMDD.md in the following structure:

  • Headline and event type
  • Related news articles
  • 3 scenarios (Base / Bull / Bear) with probabilities
  • Sector impacts (primary / secondary / tertiary)
  • Positively and negatively affected stocks (3-5 each)
  • Second opinion / review section
  • Final investment thesis with recommended actions, risk factors, and monitoring points

Step 3.3: Save Report

  1. Create the reports/ directory if it does not exist
  2. Save as scenario_analysis_<topic>_YYYYMMDD.md (e.g., scenario_analysis_venezuela_20260104.md)
  3. Notify the user of save completion
  4. Do NOT save directly to the project root

6. Resources

References:

  • skills/scenario-analyzer/references/headline_event_patterns.md
  • skills/scenario-analyzer/references/scenario_playbooks.md
  • skills/scenario-analyzer/references/sector_sensitivity_matrix.md

7. Important Notes

Language

  • All analysis and output is in Japanese
  • Stock tickers remain in English notation

Market Scope

  • Stock selection is limited to US-listed stocks only
  • ADRs are included

Time Horizon

  • Scenarios cover 18 months
  • Described in three phases: 0-6 months / 6-12 months / 12-18 months

Probability Allocation

  • Base + Bull + Bear = 100%
  • Each scenario probability must include supporting rationale

Second Opinion

  • Mandatory — strategy-reviewer is always invoked
  • Review findings are reflected in the final judgment

Output Path (Important)

  • Reports must be saved under the reports/ directory
  • Path: reports/scenario_analysis_<topic>_YYYYMMDD.md
  • Example: reports/scenario_analysis_fed_rate_hike_20260104.md
  • Create reports/ if it does not exist
  • Never save directly to the project root

8. Quality Checklist

Verify before completing the report:

  • Headline correctly parsed
  • Event type classification is appropriate
  • 3-scenario probabilities sum to 100%
  • 1st / 2nd / 3rd order impacts are logically connected
  • Stock picks have concrete rationale
  • strategy-reviewer review is included
  • Final judgment reflects review findings
  • Report saved to the correct path